Palin won't run.

She might try at first, and if so, she'll generate a lot of hype and momentum. But it won't last. And I don't think she really wants to (in the sense of wanting to put up with the realities of a campaign). I think it's more likely that she will be touring (maybe another book tour) while someone else runs. And in this too she will generate a lot of hype and momentum. I'm going to go out on a limb and say GOP candidate will end up being Romney. (Of course, it's very early and who know who else might emerge.) If so, I think he will pose a serious threat to Obama as unemployment frustrations and ideological clashes continue to exacerbate his economic and bureaucratic woes. Palin will galvanize the non-moderates and the evangelicals who feel that our country has been hijacked by rabid socialists while some white male who looks and acts like any president from any 80s movie will run.

There. I said it. Let's see if this one's right.