Coakley will win.

My guess is that the independents who favor Brown in answering polls won't turn out in droves even though Republicans will. Reason for caution though is that while the Democrats outnumber the Republicans 3 to 1, the independents make just over half the voters. The two big questions are (1) How many independents will turn out? and (2) How many Democrats will turn out?

My best (yet very uninformed) guesses are (1) Less that half, and (2) I have no idea.

But as to (2), this consideration strikes me: Although people in Massachusetts are generally unhappy with their state health care program, they still tend to favor the one currently proposed by Obama. So I think that will significantly boost turn-out among Democrats, and it might even get more independents voting for Coakley than the polls suggest.

I don't think low approval ratings for Obama matter than much right now. Many liberals are disappointed with Obama for reasons opposite those of conservatives who give him low marks. They are unhappy because he hasn't done enough of what conservatives think he does too much. So when given the choice between a candidate who hasn't done enough of what they want and a candidate who will do even less of it, they will still prefer the former.

Palin won't run.

She might try at first, and if so, she'll generate a lot of hype and momentum. But it won't last. And I don't think she really wants to (in the sense of wanting to put up with the realities of a campaign). I think it's more likely that she will be touring (maybe another book tour) while someone else runs. And in this too she will generate a lot of hype and momentum. I'm going to go out on a limb and say GOP candidate will end up being Romney. (Of course, it's very early and who know who else might emerge.) If so, I think he will pose a serious threat to Obama as unemployment frustrations and ideological clashes continue to exacerbate his economic and bureaucratic woes. Palin will galvanize the non-moderates and the evangelicals who feel that our country has been hijacked by rabid socialists while some white male who looks and acts like any president from any 80s movie will run.

There. I said it. Let's see if this one's right.

told you so

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/local_news/new_york_state/100108-Unused-Flu-Vaccine

Truckloads Of Unused Swine Flu Vaccines

Updated: Friday, 08 Jan 2010, 2:34 PM EST
Published : Friday, 08 Jan 2010, 7:10 AM EST

MYFOXNY.COM - After months of fear, media coverage and government warnings there wasn't as much demand for the swine flu vaccine in New York state as expected.

Truckloads of swine flu vaccines are being returned by counties that say the expected demand for the shots never happened.

When the state's H1N1 vaccination program kicked off in the fall there were fears that there wouldn't be enough of the new vaccine to go around.

The flu strain has not spread as wide as feared and some people were also unsure of pumping a quickly developed vaccine into their bodies.

On January 1, state health officials urged people who haven't been vaccinated to get a shot.

"When it's in a shortage, everyone clamors for it," said Dr. Richard Daines, commissioner of the state Department of Health. "Now that it's abundant, people don't think they need to fight for it."

New York is among 11 states that has widespread flu outbreaks. Daines says another wave of flu could hit the state.

The swine flu first turned up in New York last April at St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens.

Copyright MYFOXNY.COM

Swine Flu confirmed deaths: 10

Here's what the WHO says about the number of people who die yearly from the common flu:

Influenza epidemics occur yearly during autumn and winter in temperate regions. Illnesses result in hospitalizations and deaths mainly among high-risk groups (the very young, elderly or chronically ill). Worldwide, these annual epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths.

At the very least (250 000 / year), that's about 685 deaths per day.

How many deaths confirmed to be related to swine flu? The WHO currently reports 10. That includes 9 cases reported in Mexico and 1 case in the US.

Granted, H1N1 is communicable between species and we don't know how it behaves yet, but my bet is that current news and blog coverage is largely hype and alarmism.

Swine Flu confirmed deaths: 7, not 100+

This is weird. People are reporting 103 and 152 or 159, but the total number of deaths confirmed by the WHO to be due to H1N1 is just 7 as of April 29. True, we don't know how H1N1 will react, but I think people, the media, and online sources are over-reacting.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/only-7-swine-flu-deaths-not-152-says-who-20090429-aml1.html
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_28/en/index.html