My guess is that the independents who favor Brown in answering polls won't turn out in droves even though Republicans will. Reason for caution though is that while the Democrats outnumber the Republicans 3 to 1, the independents make just over half the voters. The two big questions are (1) How many independents will turn out? and (2) How many Democrats will turn out?
My best (yet very uninformed) guesses are (1) Less that half, and (2) I have no idea.
But as to (2), this consideration strikes me: Although people in Massachusetts are generally unhappy with their state health care program, they still tend to favor the one currently proposed by Obama. So I think that will significantly boost turn-out among Democrats, and it might even get more independents voting for Coakley than the polls suggest.
I don't think low approval ratings for Obama matter than much right now. Many liberals are disappointed with Obama for reasons opposite those of conservatives who give him low marks. They are unhappy because he hasn't done enough of what conservatives think he does too much. So when given the choice between a candidate who hasn't done enough of what they want and a candidate who will do even less of it, they will still prefer the former.
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