Coakley will win.

My guess is that the independents who favor Brown in answering polls won't turn out in droves even though Republicans will. Reason for caution though is that while the Democrats outnumber the Republicans 3 to 1, the independents make just over half the voters. The two big questions are (1) How many independents will turn out? and (2) How many Democrats will turn out?

My best (yet very uninformed) guesses are (1) Less that half, and (2) I have no idea.

But as to (2), this consideration strikes me: Although people in Massachusetts are generally unhappy with their state health care program, they still tend to favor the one currently proposed by Obama. So I think that will significantly boost turn-out among Democrats, and it might even get more independents voting for Coakley than the polls suggest.

I don't think low approval ratings for Obama matter than much right now. Many liberals are disappointed with Obama for reasons opposite those of conservatives who give him low marks. They are unhappy because he hasn't done enough of what conservatives think he does too much. So when given the choice between a candidate who hasn't done enough of what they want and a candidate who will do even less of it, they will still prefer the former.

Palin won't run.

She might try at first, and if so, she'll generate a lot of hype and momentum. But it won't last. And I don't think she really wants to (in the sense of wanting to put up with the realities of a campaign). I think it's more likely that she will be touring (maybe another book tour) while someone else runs. And in this too she will generate a lot of hype and momentum. I'm going to go out on a limb and say GOP candidate will end up being Romney. (Of course, it's very early and who know who else might emerge.) If so, I think he will pose a serious threat to Obama as unemployment frustrations and ideological clashes continue to exacerbate his economic and bureaucratic woes. Palin will galvanize the non-moderates and the evangelicals who feel that our country has been hijacked by rabid socialists while some white male who looks and acts like any president from any 80s movie will run.

There. I said it. Let's see if this one's right.

told you so

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/local_news/new_york_state/100108-Unused-Flu-Vaccine

Truckloads Of Unused Swine Flu Vaccines

Updated: Friday, 08 Jan 2010, 2:34 PM EST
Published : Friday, 08 Jan 2010, 7:10 AM EST

MYFOXNY.COM - After months of fear, media coverage and government warnings there wasn't as much demand for the swine flu vaccine in New York state as expected.

Truckloads of swine flu vaccines are being returned by counties that say the expected demand for the shots never happened.

When the state's H1N1 vaccination program kicked off in the fall there were fears that there wouldn't be enough of the new vaccine to go around.

The flu strain has not spread as wide as feared and some people were also unsure of pumping a quickly developed vaccine into their bodies.

On January 1, state health officials urged people who haven't been vaccinated to get a shot.

"When it's in a shortage, everyone clamors for it," said Dr. Richard Daines, commissioner of the state Department of Health. "Now that it's abundant, people don't think they need to fight for it."

New York is among 11 states that has widespread flu outbreaks. Daines says another wave of flu could hit the state.

The swine flu first turned up in New York last April at St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens.

Copyright MYFOXNY.COM